EUA prices strengthened through September, extending the summer’s momentum despite volatility around energy markets and EU ETS policy. Dec-26 EUAs began the month in the low €80s before rallying sharply mid-month, settling at a high of €87.99 on 14th September as gas and power prices surged on geopolitical tensions and weaker renewable generation. Prices then corrected as gas and power retreated, with profit-taking and September options expiry adding volatility. Late compliance buying ahead of the surrender deadline provided support, while delayed 2026 free allocation pushed some installations into the secondary market. Proposed EU ETS reforms and changes to the price-stability mechanism kept policy in focus. EUAs finished the month at €85.09, up 2.34% from August.
UKA prices were volatile in September, weakening from around £62 to a monthly low of about £57.50 before recovering sharply. The EUA-UKA spread widened to €19.27/t. Prices then rebounded to £61.48 on 29 September on renewed optimism over closer UK-EU cooperation. The key catalyst was Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech at the Labour Party Conference on 29th September, confirming his wish for deeper EU relations and a summit before year-end. UKAs jumped more than 5% in a single session, while the EUA-UKA spread narrowed to below €14. The market also absorbed maritime emissions entering the UK ETS and the related increase in 2026 auction volumes. The front December UKA contract closed September at £61.41, up 3.29% month-on-month.
CCA prices came under pressure in September, reversing part of August’s strong rally. CCA futures started the month around $33 to $34 before weakening progressively to around $32 by month-end. The move followed August’s strong California-Québec auction, which cleared at $32.48, the highest level since November 2024, but technical selling and weaker positioning outweighed its bullish impact. September option expiry added further pressure, while attention increasingly turned to the proposed California-Washington linkage, which could expand the market and improve liquidity longer term. Dec-26 CCAs closed the month at $32.18, down 5.1% from August.
RGGI allowance prices were relatively stable in September, with the market consolidating after stronger gains earlier in the year. Upside was limited by softer regional power and gas fundamentals and relatively comfortable allowance availability. Attention remained on RGGI’s post-2026 framework, including possible changes to the cap trajectory. The September auction cleared at $37.65 with 28.54m allowances sold. The Dec-26 RGGI contract finished the month at $42.02, up 2.67% month-on-month.
The Greenedge Carbon Allowances Absolute Return AMC recorded a +2.37% performance for September. Headline risks persist in Europe as the reform package is debated, and the end of the compliance period removes a key source of price support. The UK market still presents a compelling linking opportunity now Burnham is Prime Minister, with analysts predicting that if linkage is formalised, the implied UKA price at current EUA levels and exchange rates would be £65 to £72. In the US, tighter future supply and potential expansion through linkage keep the medium-term CCA outlook constructive, although near-term prices will likely stay sensitive to auctions, positioning and broader US energy markets.
